A light economic calendar means traders are likely to feed off the ongoing narratives around AI, Iran, tariffs, and earnings. From the earnings perspective, today brings data from Home Depot and Workday in particular. In a week that undoubtedly has the software and tech space in the limelight, it can be easy to miss out on the fact that we also see a handful of interesting high-street names such as Home Depot, TJX, and Lowe’s report between today and tomorrow.

This provides a key insight into the health of the consumer at a time of employment and AI uncertainty. Coming off the back of yet another shift in the tariff rates, we will be watching for any commentary over whether the new 15% blanket rate helps or hinders the margins at Home Depot. On the software-front, any hope that Workday will enjoy a sharp rebound off the back of strong earnings should perhaps be tempered. However, it does provide a timely opportunity for the CEO to lay out exactly why this current selloff is ill-founded. One thing is for sure, investors will be looking for signs that the business plans to leverage the new technology rather than wait for it to consume them.

Looking ahead, much of this week will be dominated by the question of whether we will see the US launch an attack on Iran, with their military in positioned to a great expense. The notion that this is simply a case of playing the strongest hand possible to force Iran into a highly one-sided deal could yet play out as the truth. After-all, we have seen Trump use that trick over and over when it comes to trade.

However, in an environment where Trump wants to control particular spheres of influence, the fact that Iran has had such a profound anti-American and volatile influence on much of the Middle East would undoubtedly provide an incentive to seek real change. Would the US move those military assets without speaking to Iran at the same time to avoid a pre-emptive attack? Are the negotiations simply a smokescreen aimed at affording them enough time to plan and position accordingly? One thing is for sure. The commodity space in particular is positioned around the likeliness of an attack, with the likes of gold and oil expected to see significant gains should Trump opt to launch military operations in the second-biggest country in the Middle East.

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Investors are wary as they brace for further volatility sparked by unpredictable US trade policy and the fallout from AI advances. London’s FTSE 100 is on the back foot in early trade, with more pessimism seeping through following sharp falls on Wall Street.

Nevertheless, the blue‑chip index is still showing resilience, particularly compared to indices stateside, helped by solid corporate results. Chemicals giant Croda and medical supplies firm ConvaTec surprised on the upside and also showed optimism about the outlook. Utility companies are also proving a draw for investors in the uncertain climate.

Jitters over the impact of new artificial‑intelligence‑powered tools on some incumbents are spreading, with the cyber‑security industry now reeling from the effects. Developments released by Anthropic have been like a wrecking ball through realms of listed companies, with Claude Code Security still wreaking havoc on cyber firms.

CrowdStrike shares fell sharply for a second session, bringing others down with it, amid worries the new tool can easily replicate some of its services. The wider economic impact is also a fear factor, given the potential for deep job losses, and labour markets have already been weakening. While this would ordinarily help lift hopes for faster interest rate cuts, sticky inflation won’t make that course of action quite so easy.

Focus is turning to President Trump’s State of the Union address tonight for clues about future US trade policy. Investors are bracing for another twist in the tariff tale. The blanket 10% global duties have come into force, but the threat of upping these to 15% is still dangling.

Plus, the President and his team appear to be looking at other options in the trade arsenal, including considering imposing new tariffs under the pretext of national security on industrial sectors such as large batteries, chemicals, power grids and telecoms equipment. The President won’t want to lose face against trade opponents, which is why relying on the TACO trade, and the expectation he’ll ‘chicken out’, bears risks.

The State of the Union address could also see Trump justify the military build‑up in the Gulf and potentially a fresh attack on Iran. Oil prices are hovering near seven‑month highs as tense negotiations are set to resume on Thursday, with the threat of military action still high. The concern is that it would not just disrupt shipments from Iran, but oil supplies across the region.

Another niggle of worry which risks turning into a bigger headache is unwelcome developments in the private credit market. Blue Owl Capital, a major player in private credit, changed the withdrawal mechanism for one of its funds, prompting a share slide amid concerns there could be deeper problems in the market, to which large institutions like pension funds are exposed.

It comes after the collapse of First Brands and Tricolor, a car‑financing company. Blue Owl has brushed off concerns, saying it is returning capital to investors more rapidly under the new agreement. In this more anxious environment, any hint of a problem is sending investors scuttling for cover, and checking for sufficient diversification and high‑quality exposure is sensible.

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Quick Answer: The European Parliament’s trade committee convenes an emergency meeting today (Monday 24 February) to decide whether to freeze ratification of the EU-US Turnberry Agreement. The deal — 15% on EU goods, zero on US industrial goods — was negotiated under IEEPA authority the Supreme Court has now struck down. France’s trade minister called for a “united approach.” The UK’s separately negotiated 10% rate has been erased by a flat 15% global tariff that treats all partners the same.

The Turnberry Agreement was supposed to be ratified this week. Instead, the European Parliament’s trade committee will spend Monday morning deciding whether it is even worth saving.

Committee chairman Bernd Lange announced on Sunday that he would propose suspending all legislative work on the deal until the EU receives what he called a “comprehensive legal assessment and clear commitments from the US.” He described the current state of US trade policy as “pure customs chaos,” adding that nobody can make sense of what Washington’s tariff regime actually looks like from one day to the next.

The trigger was Friday’s Supreme Court ruling, which struck down President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs. The IEEPA was the legal authority underpinning the Turnberry Agreement, reached last July when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Trump’s Scottish golf resort. The deal capped US tariffs on most EU exports at 15% — among the lowest rates offered to any trading partner — while the EU agreed to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods and open quotas for American agricultural products.

Within hours of the Supreme Court decision, Trump signed an executive order imposing a replacement 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. By Saturday morning, he had raised it to 15% — the statutory maximum — via a Truth Social post. The headline rate happens to match what the EU negotiated. But the legal architecture is entirely different, and the implications for Europe are severe.

The Uniformity Problem

Section 122 requires tariffs to be applied on a non-discriminatory basis. Every country faces the same rate. That means the carefully negotiated concessions in the Turnberry Agreement — the specific product exemptions, the agricultural quotas, the pharmaceutical carve-outs — have no legal mechanism under the new authority. The EU is paying 15% on most goods, but so is everyone else. The preferential treatment that justified the political cost of accepting a lopsided deal has evaporated.

The European Commission initially pushed back against any suggestion the deal was dead. In a statement on Sunday, it insisted that it expects the US to honour the terms of the joint statement. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič spoke with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick over the weekend, seeking what the Commission called “full clarity” on what the new tariff regime means for existing commitments.

France struck a sharper tone. Trade minister Nicolas Forissier told the Financial Times that Europe has the tools to respond, citing the Anti-Coercion Instrument — the EU’s trade “bazooka” — which could target US technology companies through export controls, procurement bans, and tariffs on services. Forissier called for a united approach rather than bilateral deals, a pointed message at a moment when some member states might be tempted to cut side deals with Washington.

The UK’s Vanishing Advantage

Britain is in an even more awkward position. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government had secured a 10% tariff rate — the lowest of any major trading partner — along with specific carve-outs for the UK’s steel, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors. Officials spent months framing this as evidence that a conciliatory approach to Washington could deliver tangible results.

The move to a uniform 15% rate under Section 122 obliterated that advantage overnight. One Capital Economics analyst described the increase as an effective rebuke to nations that had accepted deals at lower rates. The UK government said on Friday that it expects its “privileged trading position” to continue, but acknowledged it is ultimately a matter for the US to determine whether past agreements still stand.

What Happens Next

The Turnberry Agreement’s ratification had already been frozen once, in January, after Trump threatened tariffs linked to his ambitions for Greenland. The Parliament unfroze the process in early February, with a vote originally scheduled for Tuesday 24 February. That vote is now almost certainly postponed.

Even if the committee decides not to kill the deal outright, the 150-day lifespan of Section 122 tariffs creates a structural problem. These duties expire in late July unless Congress extends them. The administration plans to use the interval to launch Section 301 investigations into major trading partners and expand Section 232 national security probes, building alternative legal foundations for longer-term tariffs. But none of that will produce results within the Turnberry ratification timeline.

The EU is being asked to ratify a trade agreement whose legal basis has been ruled unconstitutional, whose tariff rates are now applied universally rather than preferentially, and whose future depends on authorities that have not yet been invoked. For a Parliament already divided over the deal’s asymmetry — zero tariffs on US goods entering Europe, 15% on European goods entering America — that may be one too many reasons to walk away.

The emergency meeting starts this morning. The deal may not survive it.

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Quick Answer: President Trump on Saturday raised his newly imposed global tariff fr 10% to 15%, the maximum permitted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The move came less than 24 hours after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that his sweeping IEEPA-based tariffs were illegal. The 15% rate takes effect immediately but expires after 150 days unless Congress acts, leaving trade deals with the EU, UK, and dozens of other nations in legal limbo.

It took less than 24 hours for President Trump to exhaust the legal ceiling of the only tariff authority he had left. On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down his signature trade policy in a 6-3 ruling that declared the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise presidential tariffs. By Friday evening, Trump had signed an executive order imposing a replacement 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective 24 February. By Saturday afternoon, he had raised it to 15%.

The increase was announced via Truth Social, where Trump wrote that he would be raising the worldwide tariff to the “fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level.” He offered no new executive order or formal proclamation — simply a social media post declaring the change effective immediately.

Section 122 has never previously been used to impose tariffs. It allows duties of up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days to address “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits, with any extension requiring congressional approval. The administration cited America’s $901 billion trade deficit in 2025 as justification.

What Stays, What Changes

The new 15% rate does not apply across the board. The White House confirmed exemptions for critical minerals, metals used in currency and bullion, energy products, natural resources and fertilisers that cannot be domestically sourced, and certain agricultural products including beef, tomatoes, and oranges. Goods already covered by Section 232 national security tariffs — steel, aluminium, copper, lumber, automobiles, auto parts, and semiconductors — are also exempt, since those duties remain in full force following the Supreme Court’s ruling.

For many countries, the 15% flat rate is actually lower than what they faced under the old IEEPA regime. Brazil, previously hit with duties as high as 50%, now faces only 15% plus sector-specific tariffs. Canada, Mexico, India, and South Africa similarly see reduced rates. China is the exception: its IEEPA tariffs have been replaced by the 15% duty, but a 25% Section 301 tariff remains, bringing its effective rate to around 35%.

Trade Deals in Limbo

The escalation to 15% has thrown existing trade agreements into confusion. The EU had negotiated a deal last summer accepting a 15% tariff on most goods in exchange for eliminating duties on US industrial goods entering Europe. That agreement was built on IEEPA authority now ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. While the new Section 122 rate happens to match the negotiated figure, the legal basis is entirely different — and temporary.

The European Parliament’s trade committee convenes Monday to reassess ratification. France’s trade minister Nicolas Forissier called for a “united approach” from EU members. The deal had already been frozen once after Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, and some lawmakers may now see no reason to ratify an agreement whose legal framework has been invalidated.

The UK faces a different problem. London had negotiated a 10% rate — described as a diplomatic win for Keir Starmer. Trump’s decision to raise the baseline to 15% erased that advantage overnight. As one analyst put it, the increase amounts to a rebuke to nations that had accepted deals at lower rates.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer insisted that countries with negotiated rates above 15% must still honour their agreements. Indonesia’s chief negotiator confirmed its deal remains in force. The result is an asymmetric system where some nations pay more than the baseline under deals they signed voluntarily, while others benefit from rates well below what they previously faced.

The 150-Day Clock

The most consequential number in this story is not 15% — it is 150. That is how many days Section 122 tariffs can remain in force without congressional approval. The clock started when the executive order took effect, meaning these duties expire in late July 2026.

The administration has signalled it does not intend to rely on Section 122 alone. Greer announced that the USTR will open Section 301 investigations into “most major trading partners” on an accelerated timeframe, targeting discriminatory practices against US technology companies and pharmaceutical pricing policies. Existing Section 232 investigations could be expanded to cover additional sectors and product categories.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Economic Club of Dallas that the combination of alternative authorities would deliver “virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026.” Whether that projection survives contact with legal challenges, procedural requirements, and a Congress that has shown little appetite for codifying Trump’s tariff agenda remains very much an open question.

Meanwhile, the refund issue looms. The Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs were collected without legal authority, potentially entitling importers to between $100 billion and $175 billion in refunds. Trump suggested the administration does not plan to issue them voluntarily, setting the stage for protracted litigation that will further complicate an already fractured trade landscape.

The trade war has not ended. It has simply been forced onto narrower, more contested legal ground — with a hard deadline that grows closer by the day.

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Asian, European and FX Markets

Asian Pacific stock indices were mostly firmer on Thursday, with investors taking encouragement from a positive session across Wall Street on Wednesday. Chinese markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year break, so there was no trade in Hong Kong or Shanghai. But South Korea’s Kospi reopened and surged over 3% to a fresh record high. Heavyweight tech names, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were at the vanguard of the move, with the former adding around 4% on the day. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 0.9% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 gained 0.6%. But India’s Nifty 50 was down over 1.6% going into the close on a generalised selloff. This looks like a bout of profit-taking following recent gains and linked to higher oil prices on rising geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, and as India acts against the ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers transporting Russian oil.
In moves which mirror those of their US counterparts, European stock indices peaked early yesterday afternoon and have since retreated. The German DAX, French CAC, Spanish IBEX and Euro Stoxx 50 were all down just under 1% midway through this morning’s session, and the selling accelerated as US stock index futures turned down. The UK’s FTSE 100 was also down, but more modestly, as it pulled back from yesterday’s record closing high. Oil majors, Shell and BP, were both lower in early trade, unable to capitalise on recent gains in the price of crude oil.

The US dollar was steady this morning. This followed a strong session on Wednesday which saw the Dollar Index retest an area of modest resistance between 97.50-97.70 on the cash. Once again, the dollar was negatively correlated to movements across US equities. The greenback bottomed out as US stock indices peaked early yesterday afternoon. The dollar then rallied to close near the day’s highs, while US stock indices pulled back from their best levels. Some strong US data helped. Industrial Production rose 0.7% in January, beating expectations, while core Durable Goods Orders and Housing Starts both surprised to the upside. Further support was provided by the minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. These were more hawkish than anticipated, with some members suggesting that the Fed’s next interest rate move may be a hike, rather than a cut. Despite this, there was barely any shift in the CME’s FedWatch Tool which continues to price in two 25bp cuts this year, with the first likely to come in June.

US Markets

After a flat and uneventful overnight session, US stock index futures suddenly dipped as European markets opened this morning. The losses weren’t confined to one sector but were broad-based, with all the majors experiencing a modest, but noteworthy, pullback. A scan of equities of major US corporations also suggested that the selloff was general and comes after Wednesday’s positive session. Yesterday, all the US majors posted gains. The tech-heavy NASDAQ rose 0.8%, with the S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 up 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. But it’s worth noting that all the majors hit their best levels early in the afternoon and then pulled back later in the day. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its last FOMC meeting which took place at the end of January. These were viewed as more hawkish than expected, and this added some downward pressure on equities. Some FOMC members indicated a preference for a pause in interest rate cuts, to give more time to see evidence showing that inflation was on a downward trend. Some members had even considered that the next move could be a hike in rates. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s preferred choice to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May, has made it clear he supports further monetary easing. Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran are also supporters of additional rate cuts. Despite the hawkish tinge to the minutes, the CME’s FedWatch Tool was little changed, and continues to show that investors believe there will be two 25-basis point cuts this year, with a strong preference for the first cut coming at the June meeting. Tomorrow sees the latest update for the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE. Ahead of this, today sees the release of weekly Unemployment Claims. Retail giant Walmart also reports today, and its results provide an insight into the health of the US consumer.

As far as the major US stock indices are concerned, the bulls may be starting to sweat a bit now, given the S&P 500’s failure to retest and break above resistance at 7,000. The Dow has also retreated from its own record-breaking milestone, as it last traded above 50,000 this time last week. Recent rally attempts have quickly faded as upside momentum ebbs. It may be too early to ‘sell the rips’, but there appears to be a slight reluctance to ‘buy the dips’.

 Commodities and Metals

Crude Oil – Crude oil was firmer in early trade this morning, adding to yesterday’s 4% rally. Front-month WTI managed to push back above $66 per barrel, retesting an area of resistance which held at the end of January. This could be a big test for the bulls. If WTI can make additional gains from here, pushing further above $66 and holding this level on any pullback, then they really will be back in control. This could signal the start of a major breakout and the possibility of a swift move back up to $70 per barrel. The current geopolitical situation certainly appears to support higher oil prices. The fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is approaching, with no end to the war in sight. Meanwhile, talks between the US and Iran concerning the latter’s nuclear ambitions are ongoing. Yesterday US Vice-President JD Vance said that President Trump has the right to use force should diplomatic efforts fail to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The US has moved a stack of military assets into the region, and this is unnerving investors. From a bearish perspective, there have been numerous failed upside breakouts over the past four years, and this could simply be another. It’s worth noting that WTI’s daily MACD, while far from being overbought, is certainly at elevated levels. A bit of positive news concerning US-Iranian talks could see any risk premium in the oil price quickly evaporate.

Gold and Silver – Gold had a strongly positive session on Wednesday, bouncing back from Tuesday’s low of $4,850 to edge above $5,000 yesterday afternoon. But it dipped back below here last night, before finding a bid during the overnight Asian Pacific session. This saw it push up above $5,020 this morning before it lost its grip as sellers came back in. Overall, gold continues to consolidate following its parabolic blow-off top, and subsequent plunge. This consolidation is helping the daily MACD to pull back to more reasonable levels, having been very overbought. This looks like a positive development from a bullish perspective. However, the bulls should be concerned that gold has struggled to hold above $5,000 per ounce. While it can certainly bounce from here, there’s also the possibility of another sharp move to the downside.

Silver also had a strong recovery yesterday. It found some modest support around $72 per ounce, and from here it was able to launch a rally which saw it trade up to $79.50 this morning. But it was unable to stage a proper retest of $80, and profit-taking quickly drove it back down to $78. Silver looks vulnerable to further selling, although its daily MACD has dropped sharply into negative territory from extremely overbought levels. It has also started to curl up. This suggests that some upside momentum may be starting to build, which is certainly constructive from a bullish perspective. However, the upside remains vulnerable to any additional dollar strength, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without progress, while uncertainty around US–Iran relations remain elevated. David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at FCA regulated fintech and financial services provider Trade Nation.

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The global startup economy has become a barometer for innovation, economic resilience, and future growth potential. Post-pandemic shifts in investment patterns, the rapid advancement of AI technologies, and the normalisation of remote infrastructure have altered where new businesses are being founded and scaled. 

Success is no longer confined to traditional hubs like Silicon Valley; smaller nations with supportive ecosystems are punching well above their weight. BusinessesForSale.com, a global online marketplace connecting business buyers and sellers across 130+ countries, analysed unicorn startup data to reveal which countries are building the most successful startup ecosystems. 

The study examined 45 countries with populations over 5 million, using unicorn companies (startups valued at over $1 billion USD) as a measure of entrepreneurial success. By calculating the number of unicorns per 10 million people, the analysis reveals which nations have created the most fertile ground for high-growth businesses, independent of overall population size.

The World’s Densest Startup Ecosystems

Table 1: Top 10 Countries by Startups Per Capita

Singapore claims the top position with 23.85 unicorns per 10 million people, despite having just 14 unicorn companies in total. This small city-state has built one of the world’s most concentrated startup ecosystems through strategic government investment, favourable tax policies, and positioning itself as Asia’s gateway for tech innovation. 

The United States follows closely with 20.50 unicorns per 10 million people, though its 712 total unicorns far exceed any other nation in absolute terms.

Ireland’s third-place ranking at 16.96 per capita demonstrates how smaller European nations have leveraged EU membership, English-speaking workforces, and competitive corporate tax rates to attract both startups and the multinational tech companies that often acquire them. 

The pattern continues with Norway (8.89), the United Kingdom (7.91), and Finland (7.11), all countries that have invested heavily in education, digital infrastructure, and research funding.

The Nordic countries particularly stand out, with Finland, Sweden, and Norway all appearing in the top ten despite modest populations. These nations share common characteristics: strong social safety nets that reduce the personal risk of entrepreneurship, highly educated workforces, and government policies that actively support innovation through grants and tax incentives.

“What these top-ranking countries demonstrate is that startup success is about creating the right conditions,” says Andrew Markou, Co-owner & CEO of BusinessesForSale.com.

Singapore and Ireland have built reputations as business-friendly environments with access to capital, talent, and markets. The Nordic countries show that strong public institutions and social infrastructure actually support risk-taking rather than inhibit it. These ecosystems are scalable because they’ve addressed the fundamental barriers: access to funding, regulatory clarity, and pathways to international markets.”

Switzerland (6.69), Canada (5.48), and the Netherlands (4.91) round out the top ten, each offering distinct advantages, from Switzerland’s financial services expertise to Canada’s immigrant-friendly policies and the Netherlands’ central European location and multilingual workforce.

Where Startup Growth Is Lagging

Table 2: Bottom 10 Countries by Startups Per Capita

The bottom of the rankings reveals a stark contrast. Nigeria and Egypt both register just 0.08 unicorns per 10 million people, despite Nigeria’s tech scene gaining international attention in recent years. 

The Philippines (0.09), Turkey (0.11), and South Africa (0.15) show similarly low rates, highlighting how even countries with growing economies and large populations struggle to create the conditions for unicorn-scale success.

Indonesia presents an interesting case, with 7 unicorns, it has more than most countries on this list, but its massive population of over 270 million means it still ranks near the bottom at 0.24 per capita. This shows how raw startup numbers can mask ecosystem underdevelopment when population size isn’t considered.

The barriers facing these countries are multifaceted: 

• Many lack mature venture capital markets, forcing entrepreneurs to seek funding abroad or bootstrap indefinitely. 
• Regulatory environments can be unpredictable, with bureaucratic hurdles that drain time and resources. 
• Infrastructure gaps, from unreliable internet connectivity to inefficient banking systems, add friction at every stage of business development. 
• Currency instability and capital controls can make it difficult to attract international investment or operate across borders.

“Countries at the bottom of this ranking are missing the ecosystem infrastructure that turns promising startups into billion-dollar companies,” notes Markou. “That means venture capital firms willing to write early-stage cheques, legal frameworks that protect intellectual property and enable smooth exits, and government policies that support business formation. These are solvable problems. Countries like Estonia have shown how deliberate policy reform can rapidly accelerate startup activity.”

Vietnam (0.20), Argentina (0.22), and Malaysia (0.28) occupy the middle ground of the bottom ten. Each has produced at least one unicorn, proving that breakthrough success is possible, but the low per-capita rates suggest these wins haven’t yet catalysed broader ecosystem development.

Andrew Markou, Co-owner & CEO of BusinessesForSale.com, commented:

“The global startup map is being redrawn. Over the next decade, we’ll likely see a continued shift away from the ‘winner-takes-all’ model where a handful of cities dominated all venture activity. Remote work has permanently changed where founders choose to build companies, and investors are becoming more comfortable backing teams outside traditional hubs.

“Emerging markets that address their infrastructure and regulatory gaps could see explosive growth. Countries like India and Brazil aren’t far behind the bottom ten but have massive domestic markets that could drive the next wave of unicorns. Meanwhile, established leaders like Singapore and the US will need to maintain their competitive advantages as talent and capital become more globally mobile.

“The countries that succeed will be those that view startup ecosystems as national infrastructure, as important as roads or schools. That means long-term commitment to funding, education, and creating environments where failure isn’t financially devastating.”

The post Where Startups Are Booming in 2026: The Global Cities Leading the Surge appeared first on European Business & Finance Magazine.

The US Dollar Index is hovering near a four-year low. Bank of America’s February survey shows fund manager positioning at its most negative since at least 2012. Capital is flowing out — and the reasons are structural, not cyclical.

Fund managers have taken the most bearish stance on the US dollar in more than a decade, as the currency absorbs the accumulated damage of unpredictable American policymaking, eroding institutional confidence, and a widening gap between what global investors expect from the world’s reserve currency and what they are actually getting.

The dollar is down 1.3 per cent in 2026 against a basket of peers including the euro and the pound, extending a punishing 9.4 per cent decline across the whole of 2025. The Dollar Index is now hovering close to a four-year low, having briefly dipped below 96 in late January — territory it has not visited since early 2022.

Bank of America’s February fund manager survey, published on Friday, quantified the scale of the retreat. Dollar positioning among the institutional investors polled has dropped below last April’s nadir — the point at which President Donald Trump spooked global markets with sweeping tariff announcements that triggered the sharpest half-year dollar decline since 1973. The survey found that managers’ exposure to the dollar is now the most negative since at least 2012, the earliest year for which the bank holds data.

The Shift Is Not Speculative — It Is Structural

What makes this move particularly significant is its composition. This is not a hedge fund bet. The selling is being driven by so-called real money investors — pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and long-term institutional allocators — who are either hedging against further dollar weakness or actively reducing their exposure to dollar-denominated assets.

Options data from CME Group confirms the shift. Bets against the currency have outstripped positive wagers on the dollar so far this year, reversing the positioning of the fourth quarter of 2025, when optimism about US economic exceptionalism still prevailed. Bets on further dollar depreciation versus the euro, measured through risk reversals, have reached levels only previously seen during the Covid-19 pandemic and after the April 2025 tariff shock.

Caroline Houdril, a multi-asset fund manager at Schroders, told the Financial Times that the firm is witnessing increasing capital repatriation, with overseas investors who previously held dollars converting their funds back into local currencies. That process — European and Asian institutions bringing capital home — is the kind of structural flow that tends to be sticky rather than speculative.

Why the Dollar Is Losing Its Gravitational Pull

The traditional case for holding dollars rests on three pillars: higher US interest rates relative to peers, the depth and liquidity of US capital markets, and the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. All three are under pressure simultaneously.

The US–Europe interest rate spread has narrowed to approximately 0.25 percentage points as the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 75 basis points since mid-2025 while the European Central Bank has held a tighter stance for longer. That compression has removed one of the dollar’s key advantages and redirected capital flows toward the eurozone. In January alone, net outflows from US Treasuries reached an estimated $18 billion, with a further $22 billion leaving US equities.

Trump’s aggressive geopolitical actions — from sweeping tariffs that disrupted global supply chains to threats against European countries over Greenland — have raised anxiety over America’s attractiveness as a safe destination for the world’s capital. His pressure on the Federal Reserve has compounded the concern. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic acknowledged earlier this month that confidence in the dollar is being questioned and warned that such doubts could create ripples in the currency’s valuation.

The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair has eased some concerns about institutional independence, but as Bank of America’s Ralf Preusser noted, the easing of those fears has not translated into renewed demand for the dollar or greater optimism toward US assets. The damage appears to have been done.

Where the Money Is Going Instead

The beneficiaries are visible across currency and commodity markets. The euro and the pound have strengthened against the dollar, while the Swiss franc has surged to an 11-year high, gaining 3.5 per cent against the dollar in the first six weeks of 2026 alone. Gold has been a primary recipient of defensive flows, trading near record highs as investors seek insulation from currency debasement and geopolitical risk. European equities have outperformed US equities year-to-date in dollar terms, partly because the falling greenback flatters returns when converted back into local currencies — a dynamic that has accelerated the broader rotation of global capital away from Wall Street.

Expectations are building among reserve managers that diversification away from the dollar will accelerate. Nearly half of Bank of America’s respondents identified strong US economic data — particularly the January jobs report, which significantly exceeded expectations — as the primary near-term catalyst for a potential dollar rebound. But even that caveat underscores how fragile sentiment has become: the bull case for the dollar now rests not on structural advantages but on the hope that a single data print might temporarily reverse a deeply entrenched trend.

The dollar’s decline is no longer a trade. It is a reallocation — and for now, the direction of travel is clear.

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Europe: Modest Growth Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty 

European markets experienced a volatile but generally stable week, with major indexes ending close to flat. The pan-European STOXX 600 reached a record high during the week before retreating slightly, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.

Economic data showed that the eurozone economy continued to grow in the final quarter of 2025, expanding by 0.3%. This translated into annual growth of 1.5%, suggesting steady but moderate economic progress. Spain led the region with strong growth, while Germany posted weaker employment figures.

Labor market conditions remained relatively resilient, with employment in the euro area rising more than expected. However, challenges persist. France’s unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in over three years, with youth unemployment remaining particularly high.

Inflation pressures also reemerged in parts of Europe. In Germany, wholesale prices increased, driven by higher costs for metals and food products. These developments may influence future monetary policy decisions.

In the United Kingdom, political uncertainty affected investor confidence following controversy surrounding senior government appointments. Despite this, the economy showed modest expansion in the final quarter of

2025. Manufacturing activity improved, but construction weakened. Retail sales growth strengthened, indicating that consumer demand remains supportive.

Overall, European markets continue to balance moderate economic growth with political and inflation-related risks.

United States: Strong Jobs Data Meets Market Caution 

U.S. financial markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors weighed strong employment data against growing concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional business models. Major stock indexes declined, led by technology-heavy shares, reflecting worries that rapid AI developments may disrupt established industries and earnings outlooks.

The Nasdaq Composite recorded the steepest losses, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished lower. Value-oriented stocks continued to outperform growth stocks, extending a trend that has persisted for several weeks.

Economic data played a key role in shaping market sentiment. The January employment report showed that U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs, the strongest monthly increase in over a year. The unemployment rate also declined slightly to 4.3%. Job growth was concentrated in healthcare, social services, and construction.

While the strong labor market reflects economic resilience, it reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors now believe rates are more likely to remain elevated for longer.

Inflation data offered some relief, as consumer prices rose at a slower pace in January. However, retail sales stalled, indicating that consumer spending may be losing momentum. In bond markets, U.S. Treasury prices rose as investors sought stability amid equity market volatility.

Asia and China: Political Shifts, Policy Support, and Deflation Risks 

Asian markets delivered mixed performance during the week, shaped by political developments, currency movements, and ongoing policy responses.

In Japan, stock markets surged following a decisive election victory for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The result strengthened confidence in the government’s plans for fiscal spending, infrastructure investment, and targeted tax relief. It also opened the possibility of increased defense spending in the coming years.

Bond yields in Japan remained stable, easing concerns about rising government debt. The Japanese yen strengthened after government officials signaled their readiness to intervene in currency markets. However, economic challenges remain, as real wages continued to decline due to inflation outpacing pay growth.

In China, stock markets recorded modest gains ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Economic data showed that consumer inflation slowed sharply in January, while producer prices remained in deflation for the 40th consecutive month. This highlights ongoing pressure on manufacturers and weak domestic demand.

The property sector showed tentative signs of stabilization, with slower declines in home prices. Policymakers continued to support the economy through liquidity injections and a commitment to “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2026. The central bank signaled potential for further interest rate and reserve requirement cuts.

Across Asia, governments remain focused on balancing growth, financial stability, and structural reform in a challenging global environment.

Looking Ahead – 

As global markets navigate shifting economic data, policy expectations, and technological change, investors remain focused on resilience, adaptability, and long-term value creation. In this evolving environment, disciplined strategy and informed decision-making will remain essential for navigating both risks and emerging opportunities.

The post Global Economy Weekly Roundup: The Key Events, Data and Market Moves Explained appeared first on European Business & Finance Magazine.

The global economy is being reshaped by artificial intelligence, rearmament, weight-loss drugs, and the institutionalisation of crypto. Here are ten investments — across seven industries — that we believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns for the year ahead.

The investment landscape in 2026 is defined by a handful of structural forces that are unlikely to reverse any time soon. Artificial intelligence is moving from hype to infrastructure. European defence spending is entering a generational upcycle. The GLP-1 weight-loss revolution is expanding from injectable drugs to pills. And Bitcoin, after a brutal late-2025 correction, is being treated less like a speculative punt and more like a genuine portfolio asset by institutional allocators.

At the same time, there are serious risks. Over $700 billion in combined capex spending has been guided by just five hyperscalers for 2026, and investors are increasingly asking whether the AI buildout will generate returns commensurate with the investment. Trade policy remains unpredictable. Interest rate paths are diverging across major economies. And equity valuations in the United States remain historically stretched, with the S&P 500 trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 28.

Against that backdrop, we have selected ten investments — spanning semiconductors, defence, big tech, healthcare, aerospace, and crypto — that we believe combine strong fundamentals, structural tailwinds, and defensible competitive positions. Not all are cheap. But all, in our view, are positioned on the right side of the forces reshaping the global economy.

1. Nvidia (NVDA)

Sector: Semiconductors / Artificial Intelligence Why now: Dominant market share in the infrastructure layer of AI

Every serious list of stocks for 2026 begins here, and for good reason. Nvidia controls approximately 92 percent of the GPU market for AI workloads. Its most recent quarterly revenue came in at $57 billion, with nearly 90 percent of that generated by its data centre business. The company has gone from being a graphics chip maker to the essential supplier of the hardware underpinning the most significant technology shift since the internet.

The bull case is straightforward. Cloud service providers — Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle — have collectively guided to over $700 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, a $290 billion increase from 2025. The vast majority of that spending flows through Nvidia’s ecosystem. Its Blackwell architecture is shipping at scale, and customer demand continues to outstrip supply.

The bear case is equally real. At some point, investors will question whether these hyperscalers can generate adequate returns on their AI investments. Nvidia’s stock has risen more than 1,100 percent over five years, and any deceleration in orders would hit the share price hard. Competition from AMD and custom silicon (Google’s TPUs, Amazon’s Trainium) is real, if not yet material.

But for 2026, the infrastructure buildout is not slowing down. Nvidia predicted last year that AI infrastructure spending would reach into the trillions by the end of the decade. For investors with a tolerance for volatility, the company remains the single best proxy for the AI investment cycle.

2. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)

Sector: Semiconductors / Manufacturing Why now: Irreplaceable position in advanced chip fabrication

If Nvidia designs the chips that power AI, TSMC makes them. The Taiwanese foundry manufactures approximately 70 percent of the world’s processors and an estimated 90 percent of all advanced chips — those made using 7-nanometer process nodes and below. That concentration of capability is both its greatest strength and its most significant geopolitical risk.

Advanced chips accounted for nearly 74 percent of TSMC’s wafer revenues in 2025. The company commenced mass production of 2-nanometer chips at both its Hsinchu and Kaohsiung sites in Taiwan in the fourth quarter of 2025, and is now preparing to scale its cutting-edge A16 process node for high-performance computing workloads.

TSMC is also aggressively ramping its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate packaging capacity — the critical technology that pairs logic chips with high-bandwidth memory in AI accelerators. Industry estimates suggest the company may boost monthly CoWoS capacity from 75,000–80,000 wafers in late 2025 to as high as 120,000–130,000 by the end of 2026.

Morningstar recently assessed that TSMC is positioned to stay ahead of its competitors for decades. Its share price has risen 262 percent over the past three years, but the forward earnings multiple remains reasonable relative to its growth trajectory and the effective monopoly it holds in advanced fabrication. For anyone investing in the AI theme, TSMC is the foundational layer.

3. Rheinmetall (RHM)

Sector: European Defence Why now: Structural rearmament cycle with multi-decade visibility

European defence is no longer a cyclical trade — it is a structural transformation. NATO members are not debating whether to hit the 2 percent of GDP spending guideline; they have already surpassed it. Several frontline and northern European countries are planning sustained spending above 3 percent, and Poland’s defence expenditure exceeded 4.5 percent of GDP in 2025.

Rheinmetall, the German arms manufacturer, sits at the centre of this shift. The company is the primary beneficiary of Germany’s decision to raise its defence budget from €86 billion in 2025 to €108.2 billion in 2026, with a target of €225 billion by 2029. Berlin activated a €100 billion special defence fund and, in 2025, approved a €500 billion multi-year package covering defence, infrastructure, and industrial capacity.

Goldman Sachs has a €2,200 price target on Rheinmetall and maintains a buy rating. Barclays and Deutsche Bank see the stock reaching €2,050, while Berenberg projects €2,330. The company benefits from sustained demand for ammunition, armoured vehicles, and artillery systems as European countries replenish stockpiles depleted by the Ukraine conflict.

Critically, analysts argue that even a peace deal in Ukraine would not materially reduce European defence spending. As Goldman strategist Sam Burgess put it, Russia would use any pause to reconstitute its forces, and NATO must prepare accordingly. This is not a war trade. It is an industrialisation trade — and Rheinmetall has the operating leverage to capture it.

4. Meta Platforms (META)

Sector: Digital Advertising / Artificial Intelligence Why now: Undervalued relative to earnings power despite massive AI spending

Meta reported $201 billion in revenue for 2025, with operating margins of 41 percent from its Family of Apps segment — Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. The company’s 3.58 billion daily active users generate an advertising machine that produces over $100 billion in annual operating profit. Free cash flow hit $43.6 billion last year.

Morningstar maintains an $850 fair value estimate for Meta’s wide-moat business, noting that shares remain undervalued despite recent gains. The firm expects 2026 sales growth of 25 percent, driven by AI-powered improvements in ad targeting, engagement, and content recommendation. Ad impressions were up 18 percent in the most recent quarter, with video engagement particularly strong.

The concern, obviously, is spending. Meta has guided to $125 billion in capital expenditure and $162 billion in operating expenses for 2026, the vast majority directed at AI infrastructure. Reality Labs — the metaverse division — has now accumulated roughly $80 billion in cumulative losses since late 2020, with $19.2 billion lost in 2025 alone.

The investment thesis requires accepting that Meta’s core advertising business is so profitable that it can absorb these losses while still delivering superior returns. The evidence so far supports that view. Threads has already reached 320 million monthly users. Instagram Reels continues to gain share against TikTok. And every improvement in Meta’s AI capabilities feeds directly back into the ad engine that funds everything else.

5. Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Sector: Healthcare / GLP-1 Pharmaceuticals Why now: Deeply discounted after a 66 percent drawdown, with a first-mover advantage in oral weight-loss drugs

Novo Nordisk has been punished by the market. Its share price has fallen 66 percent from its mid-2024 peak, driven by concerns about competition from Eli Lilly, pricing pressure from a US government agreement, and guidance that 2026 financials will be weak. The stock now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 13, compared to Eli Lilly’s 50.

That valuation gap looks excessive. In early 2026, Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for the first oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug — a significant milestone that could dramatically expand the addressable market by reaching patients who refuse injectable treatments. Clinical data suggests Novo’s oral drug may be slightly more effective than Eli Lilly’s competing pill, with a potentially better safety profile.

Morningstar rates Novo Nordisk at 4 stars, trading at a 21 percent discount to fair value. The dividend yield of 3.9 percent is well covered by a 40 percent payout ratio. The company expects improved performance in 2027 as the oral drug gains traction.

For investors willing to take a contrarian position in healthcare, Novo Nordisk at 13 times earnings — in a market where the GLP-1 opportunity is still in its early stages — represents one of the most compelling value opportunities of 2026. The weight-loss drug market is projected to reach $150 billion annually by 2030. Novo Nordisk will remain one of two companies that dominate it.

6. Amazon (AMZN)

Sector: Cloud Computing / AI / E-commerce Why now: Trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with AWS positioned as the leading AI cloud platform

Amazon reported strong fourth-quarter results across all segments, yet the stock fell 12 percent after the company guided to $200 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. Investors reacted to the headline number, not the underlying business — which continues to compound at an extraordinary rate.

Morningstar has a $260 fair value estimate on Amazon, putting the stock at a 19 percent discount — a 4-star rating. AWS remains the world’s largest cloud infrastructure provider, and its AI capabilities are attracting enterprise customers at an accelerating rate. Amazon’s custom Trainium chips are gaining adoption, reducing the company’s dependence on Nvidia while improving margins in its cloud business.

The advertising division — now a $60 billion-plus annual run rate — is one of the fastest-growing segments of the business. Retail margins continue to improve as the company optimises its logistics network and expands same-day delivery. Prime membership remains one of the stickiest subscription products in the world.

The capex number is large, but so is the opportunity. Amazon is building the infrastructure layer for enterprise AI adoption — and unlike pure-play AI companies, it has three separate profit engines (cloud, advertising, and retail) to fund the investment.

7. Bitcoin (BTC)

Sector: Digital Assets / Cryptocurrency Why now: Institutional adoption is structural, supply is constrained, and the asset is trading well below most analyst targets

Bitcoin enters 2026 in an unusual position. It was the worst-performing major asset in late 2025, losing more than 30 percent in six weeks as over $1.2 trillion in crypto market value evaporated. The correction was driven not by retail panic but by mechanical deleveraging — $19 billion in liquidations in a single day — and institutional de-risking as macro conditions tightened.

Yet the structural case for Bitcoin has never been stronger. Over $50 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past year, and most of that capital has not left. The 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026, further constraining supply. Institutional demand — from ETF allocators, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds — now exceeds new annual Bitcoin supply.

Price forecasts for 2026 range widely. Standard Chartered targets $150,000. Bitwise and Bernstein project $200,000. JPMorgan and Citibank sit at $170,000 and $133,000 respectively. CoinShares expects a range of $120,000 to $170,000, with stronger price action in the second half of the year as rate cuts and improved liquidity conditions take hold.

Bitcoin is not a stock, and it should not be treated as one. It is a volatile, uncorrelated asset that has been the top-performing investment in ten of the past thirteen years. A modest allocation — Bitwise’s CIO suggests treating it like a portfolio seasoning rather than a main course — can improve risk-adjusted returns over time. At current prices, the risk-reward skews favourably for investors with a multi-year horizon.

8. Broadcom (AVGO)

Sector: AI Infrastructure / Semiconductors Why now: Converting AI momentum into real earnings, with a differentiated position in custom silicon and networking

Broadcom occupies a different niche in the AI ecosystem to Nvidia. While Nvidia dominates general-purpose GPUs, Broadcom focuses on custom AI accelerators (designed for specific hyperscaler workloads) and the networking infrastructure that connects AI clusters at scale. Both are critical — and both are seeing explosive demand.

Revenue grew to over $18 billion in the most recent quarter, a 28 percent increase year-on-year. For fiscal 2025, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow grew 35 percent and 39 percent respectively. The company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 33 and price-to-sales ratio of 25 are elevated but justifiable given the growth trajectory.

The stock is well off its 52-week high and down nearly 4 percent year-to-date, presenting an entry point for buy-and-hold investors. Broadcom’s custom silicon business — designing bespoke AI chips for Google, Meta, and other hyperscalers — is a high-margin, sticky revenue stream that competitors cannot easily replicate. Its VMware acquisition is also beginning to contribute meaningful recurring revenue.

For investors who want AI exposure beyond Nvidia, Broadcom offers a differentiated, infrastructure-focused play with strong profitability and growing cash generation.

9. Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.L)

Sector: Aerospace / Defence / Energy Why now: Turnaround complete, with defence upside and commercial aviation recovery compounding

Rolls-Royce has been one of the most remarkable corporate turnarounds in recent European history. Under CEO Tuck Holroyd, who took over from Tufan Erginbilgic in late 2025 after Erginbilgic delivered the initial restructuring, the company has transformed from a business burning cash to one generating substantial free cash flow.

The investment thesis rests on three pillars. First, the commercial aviation recovery is structural — Rolls-Royce earns the majority of its revenue from long-term service agreements tied to engine flying hours, and international wide-body traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Second, the defence division benefits directly from European rearmament spending, with military engine programmes and submarine propulsion systems seeing increased demand. Third, the company’s small modular reactor programme positions it as a potential beneficiary of the nuclear energy renaissance driven by AI data centre power demands.

Rolls-Royce stock has surged approximately 400 percent from its 2022 lows, but analysts argue the earnings trajectory still supports further upside. The company’s exposure to both the commercial aviation cycle and the defence spending cycle gives it a diversification advantage that pure-play defence stocks lack.

10. Alphabet (GOOGL)

Sector: Search / Cloud / Artificial Intelligence Why now: Trading at a discount to fair value despite leading positions in search, cloud, and AI research

Alphabet is the forgotten member of the Magnificent Seven. While Meta and Nvidia have attracted most of the AI enthusiasm, Alphabet has been quietly building one of the deepest AI capabilities in the industry — from its Gemini large language models to its TPU custom chips to DeepMind’s research breakthroughs.

Google Cloud revenue grew 35 percent in the most recent quarter and is now profitable on an operating basis. Search revenue remains resilient despite fears that AI chatbots would erode Google’s dominance — in fact, AI-powered search features have increased engagement and ad click-through rates. YouTube advertising continues to grow as connected TV viewing expands globally.

Morningstar rates Alphabet as undervalued. The stock finished a recent week down after mixed earnings reactions, but the underlying business continues to compound. The company guided to $180 billion in capital expenditure — a staggering figure, but one that reflects the scale of its ambition in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and autonomous driving (Waymo).

For investors who believe AI will enhance rather than destroy Google’s search monopoly, Alphabet at current valuations represents an asymmetric opportunity. The company generates enough cash to fund its AI ambitions while maintaining a fortress balance sheet with over $100 billion in cash and equivalents.

The Portfolio Logic

These ten investments are not a balanced portfolio. They are deliberately concentrated in the themes we believe will define returns over the next twelve to thirty-six months: the AI infrastructure buildout, European rearmament, the GLP-1 healthcare revolution, and the institutionalisation of digital assets.

A more conservative allocation might weight towards the value plays — Novo Nordisk at 13 times earnings, Amazon at a 19 percent discount to fair value, Alphabet trading below Morningstar’s estimate — while treating the higher-multiple names (Nvidia, Broadcom) and Bitcoin as growth and diversification positions.

The common thread is structural demand. Every company on this list is positioned on the supply side of a multi-year spending cycle that is being driven by forces — geopolitical instability, AI adoption, demographic health trends, monetary debasement — that are unlikely to reverse in the near term.

That does not make any of them risk-free. Valuations can compress. Trade wars can escalate. AI capex can disappoint. But in a world defined by uncertainty, we believe these ten investments offer the strongest combination of competitive positioning, earnings visibility, and exposure to the forces reshaping the global economy.

This article was produced by European Business Magazine. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual readers. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.

The post From Nvidia to Bitcoin: The 10 Best Stocks to Buy in 2026 — And Why appeared first on European Business & Finance Magazine.